[umbus]

Dow is down again today. 7500, this is getting fukkinh ugly.
I think we will have a big war I'm afraid, hey "Drunken Monkey" this could have been planned all along....

umbus - call me Umbucullus in the moment of the despair, The Roman Empire did fall.
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[umbus]

I put this in my signature aswell, go look at todays drop
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[umbus]

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- China's job outlook is "grim," and the global financial crisis could cause more layoffs and more labor unrest until the country's economic stimulus package kicks in next year, the nation's minister of human resources and social security said Thursday.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/11/20/china.jobs/index.html?eref=edition_business
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[umbus]

got this from another forum

below happened today
1.) S&P drops 7%
2.) Dow loses 5.6%
3.) S&P down 52% from 2007 highs
4.) Citigroup down 27% today
5.) CREDIT MARKETS DISRUPTED AGAIN
6.) TREASURY NOTES in the TANK
7.) S&P 11 year low
8.) jobless claims lowest since 1982
9.) STOCKS ON PACE FOR WORST YEAR EVER!
10.) GOLDMAN closed below 199 IPO price
11.) TREASURY YEILDS DROP TO RECORD LOWS
12.) JPMORGAN cutting another 3000 jobs

ON A BRIGHT NOTE when everythign was in the red across the globe GOLD/SILVER made modest GAINS even in the face of MASSIVE SHORT SELLING BY BANKS
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[[Shizo]]

Bring it. We likes it rough.

[Jimmyjimjim]

This basically had to happen. There has been too much too big for too long sustained beyond all reasonable limits. The higher it goes, the longer the fall. We'll be in some bad shit for 3-7 years if what I understand is true. The good that will happen will be that there will be more room for innovation and new markets. With GM going down, and Ford and Daimler-Chrysler likely to follow, we really WILL be in for some exiting ingenuity. Might get those electric cars after all.

I'll bet they're glad they tried to ride the SUV craze for so long. They should have been developing hybrid econo-cars in 1995.

[neff]

Time for a new War to boost the economy, uh? Obama has not yet start one. As new President he has the right to start one per legislative period.
_________________
*

[Mikko K]

Boost? Like Iraq?

[umbus]

amazing, up almost 500 today
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI

They're speaking of a new low, could perhaps hit as low as 6000 if we are unlucky. Times will get rough ahead, the money system bleeds.
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[Drunken Monkey]

[Drunken Monkey]

�If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.�
�Thomas Jefferson

�I sincerely believe the banking institutions having the issuing power of money are more dangerous to liberty than standing armies�.
�Thomas Jefferson

�Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.�
�Henry Kissinger

But since most americans cant find America on the map and are far more in tune with American Idol than with American history what else did you expect?
_________________
"A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity" - Sigmund Freud

[umbus]

World economic demand is now collapsing along with the yearlong credit collapse. Recent news is full of stories about how world economic demand fell off a cliff in October, 08. Every sector is being hit, from new cars to recycled cardboard. In each case, October is pointed to where economic demand fell off a cliff�

Cars with nowhere to go in Long Beach harbor, California. Japanese ones! NYTimes.com [pic on site]

�The ships keep coming, but there�s nowhere for the cars to go,� Mr. Golledge said.

�Not far away, metal, cardboard, paper and plastic are piling up in the lot of Corridor Recycling. The company takes in refuse from around the country, then bales it for shipment to China. The cardboard is used to make new boxes while used shrink wrap is turned into shoe soles and insulation for sleeping bags and coats.

For much of this year, the company shipped about 25 containers a day, each filled with 23 tons of refuse to be recycled. But after the Olympics, demand slowed for recycled metal. In October, demand for everything else took a sharp downturn, and for the last two weeks the company has not shipped a single container.

�It just came to a complete stop. Absolutely a stop,� said Gilbert Dodson, the recycling company�s co-owner. �I�ve seen it slow over the last 25 years, but this is the worst,� he said of the current downturn...�

NYTimes.com

There are stories about ships all over the world stacking up in exporting countries, anchored, and not able to sail because they cannot get letters of credit for the shipments. Hong Kong was mentioned as having rows and rows of loaded but idled ships stuck there.

The same goes for oil tankers, lines of them anchored even though they are full, with no buyers. There has been a screeching halt of shipping worldwide. Products are backing up in Asia.

Many of you have heard about the collapse of the Baltic Dry index, a shipping index for containers. It has fallen from over 11,000 in July to around 800, in only a couple of months!

Panicky China

Over 100,000 factories in China are to close by the end of the year. Chinese plant owners are abandoning their plants, unable to pay their bills, and abandoning workers with months of back pay unpaid. That is so serious that riots are breaking out in Chinese cities, and even now there is 10 Pct unemployment in some of the biggest exporting cities in provinces like Guangdong. Unemployment in the cities is one thing that scares China. That�s why they came up with that $500 billion stimulus plan. Compared to the size of the Chinese economy, that�s like the US coming up with a $2 trillion economic stimulus. Such a sudden and immense move is unheard of in China. It�s said that China is actually buying some of their own inventory that is stacking up.

GM bankruptcy

With the prospects of a US auto bailout shrinking, GM will go bankrupt in a couple of months, they say. If that happens, the commodity complex will take that as a big sell. It�s said that a car uses up to 40 pounds of copper, and a house in the US uses 400 pounds or more. Copper has fallen drastically in the last two months. Copper is considered a barometer of economic demand.

There are calls for GM to go ahead and declare bankruptcy while they still have some cash. We just might see that happen right after Congress adjourns for the year, if there is no bailout. The stock crash Tuesday at the end of the day reflected that sentiment. Will we see a GM BK filing sooner than we think?

Credit has not improved

Credit spreads have not improved. There is flight out of any and all bonds into US Treasuries of all stripes. Now even 30 year US Treasuries have fallen below 4%, while the 3 months short term USTs are below a half percent, nearing zero. There is literally no money going into new credit of all stripes, and this is worldwide too.

Businesses cannot roll over their short term credit facilities. That means they have to operate on a cash basis. This has worsened in the last two months, not improved. What that means is that when the cash runs out, they have to shut down, and layoffs come. Get ready for a horrific next few months of layoff news around the world.

Shortages?

We already mentioned how the literal total absence of credit is stalling ships at the docks. I am starting to get concerned that, with the supply chain so tight (typically 3 days worth in pipeline) we may see shortages of many things if this credit meltdown and its resultant freeze on exports continues.

Japanese exports have fallen almost 8% year over year, and exports to the EU have fallen an astounding 17%. Japanese auto exports have fallen 15%.

I know we focused here on autos, but since most everything is manufactured and shipped overseas it�s very possible that we will run out of many things, and so will our trade partners. Right now there is surplus backing up in some things like cars, but after factories worldwide shut down, scarcity will start to appear. That will take some time, but it�s probably coming later. There won�t be any money out there for new production demand by then either. Everybody is over leveraged.

Layoffs have only just begun

In the mean time, since inventories are piling up, manufacturers will be shutting down plants worldwide. Big layoffs are coming everywhere. The end of 08, and 09 are going to be the worst layoffs worldwide we have seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Another Great Depression?

So, since world demand is literally falling off a cliff since October, and businesses are running out of cash (there is no credit at all out there for the companies or their customers), it appears we are indeed in the beginning stages of a real world economic depression, what�s next?

USD prospects

First, as far as the USD goes, things don�t look good. The USD already had big problems with the US fiscal and trade deficits totaling $1 trillion a year for the last 5 years. Now, the fiscal deficit alone will be over $1 trillion and growing. Sure, a slowing economy will bring down the US trade deficit, but the pressures on the USD are becoming big enough to cause real trouble.

Another thing is that the USD has been held up for decades by the US appetite for imports. As the US economy falls into depression, the incentive for our trade partners to keep buying US bonds to fund our fiscal deficits dwindles.

Right now, there is seemingly unlimited demand for US treasuries. But, that will change. Right now, there is flight to safety of any kind. Since every government on the planet is carrying a huge public debt, the US seems one of the best bets � for now.

But, at a $trillion a year US fiscal deficit, and with other governments now needing to use their excess dollars to support their own fiscal deficits and try to prop up their economies (China for example), the appetite for US treasuries will fall dramatically at some point. Again, this is guaranteed by a big drop in US import demand.

Currency crises, USD

As we mentioned in the last public article, there are ongoing currency crises brewing right now. Russia is literally chewing through those foreign reserves they built up in the last 5 years commodity boom to defend the Ruble. They have been forced to give up.

Korea has big trouble with the Won. They also have chewed through a lot of their foreign reserves defending it. And it�s doubtful they have enough foreign reserves to handle a lot of short term commercial credit that is not rolling over, and their businesses are in big trouble from that, and that is building to a head in the next month. Russia has the same issues with having to roll over hundreds of billions of short term credit in the next month, aside from trying to defend the Ruble.

The USD has strengthened from all this in several ways. It is in demand as the main settlement currency worldwide. That is why the US Fed has had to make unprecedented amounts of currency swaps with the world�s central banks recently (currency swaps are where central banks trade currencies to get dollars or whatever between themselves).

And then, as we mentioned before, the US treasury bonds are regarded as safe, for now.

But the USD is reaching a tipping point. What�s keeping it alive now is the flight to cash and safety. But that process will peter out, and then the $trillion dollar US fiscal deficits, combined with the pullback of trade partner interest in US treasury bonds will end up killing the dollar.

How far off is that stage? Maybe 2 to 4 years. Frankly, I think it�s nearer than we all might think. It certainly is now an imminent concern, not a thing far out in the future. It�s even possible the USD could have a drastic fall in 09.

World currency turmoil, not just the USD

And, the currency turmoil in general is going to worsen all over the world, not just for the US. The EU political and fiscal situation is not a lot better than the US. The Euro is saddled with big fiscal deficits throughout the EU that are getting worse. The dissention between the weaker economies like France vs stronger Germany is hitting the creditability of the Euro. That�s one reason it�s dropping. Then, consider that, politically, the EU is not stable at all. Remember, this whole EU Euro experiment is barely 10 years old.

Other currencies such as our trade partners� are in doubt. Again, consider Russia and Korea, and many others we aren�t mentioning. Since these economies are still predicated on trade with the West, especially the US and the EU, if the USD goes down, so do their economies and their currencies. There will definitely be a big world currency domino effect if the USD has a devaluation or confidence crisis.

This is one reason that we suggest some currency diversification, to include precious metals of course. Of course the hard question is which ones? None are sure havens alone.

Gold prices

And as we mentioned before, gold and precious metal prices are dropping in the paper markets, since everything is being sold to get cash. Gold is one of the ones that will remain standing. It�s cash par excellence and a central bank reserve asset.

Of course the gold stocks and metal stocks are getting hit too. But this is all general liquidation from the funds� whew a lot is going on isn�t it.

401ks etc

We continue to be concerned about tax deferred retirements. First, the tax deferral is something that is a red herring. Since the US is running ruinous fiscal deficits, taxes on �tax deferred� retirements will be raised dramatically as the US starts to enter a USD crisis.

Second, we view most of the tax deferred retirement plans as only serving the brokerages (who pushed the whole idea when it was invented decades ago) and mainly a big savings account for the governments. If that grows, the governments have more taxes to collect, don�t they?

And then, a huge drawback of tax deferred accounts is that it deters people from getting liquid and cashing out. The money is kind of locked in there since people don�t want to take the tax hit.

These concerns about tax deferred accounts apply to pretty much any country too.

And then, by being sort of frozen, people end up riding bear markets down with these tax deferred accounts, instead of doing something that really puts meat on their monthly budget table � like paying off the house.

A paid off residence puts a roof over your head. And you can�t live inside a 401k, now can you. The other thing is a paid off residence is the single greatest defense against an economic depression and a USD collapse.

Gold is for some cash type protection from a USD collapse�.
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[umbus]

Above post taken from another forum, quotation.

This is so fucking bad, you guys don't realize how bad it is. The domino effect has started.
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[Drunken Monkey]

Don't waste your breath. Get a bag of rice, canned food, fruit, dry foods... a gun, a good circle of people you can trust that understand whats happening and sit it out. I think its gonna start getting pretty fucking unbearable in under 2 years from now. Maybe sooner.

And transfer a sizable portion of your savings into something that has had value for last 5 thousands years. Not diamonds.
_________________
"A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity" - Sigmund Freud

[umbus]

This forum is not what it used to be, why does it feel like I am talking to myself everytime I post?
You really think we have 2 years?
btw Drunken did you go check that site I gave you?
There's a girl overthere who predicts some stuff with Dow Jones, she's been right 2 times. Some of those in the know are speaking about 6000 index, not sure what happens if that low but at some point it's gonna break, they rea already talking about depression.
If everyone will be out of work.....
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[Drunken Monkey]

Umbus, i dont know about any sort of prophecies, but i cant remember last time Celente was wrong.
_________________
"A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity" - Sigmund Freud

[Jimmyjimjim]

[umbus]

[Jimmyjimjim]

[umbus]

oh wait, something I did way back?
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[neff]

And I don't think it's good for a serious discussion to copypaste 3 Booksites out of another forum into this thread.
_________________
*

[Drunken Monkey]

[umbus]

[Sumaleth]

umbus:

For clarification, what are you hoping to achieve with this thread? I sense that you think you're making a point in repeating things you've seen in the news, but I'm not sure that intention is reaching the page. It's like an RSS feed.
_________________
Art Links Archive -- Artists and Tutorials

[umbus]

Well to be honest I am not sure anymore, I'm confused. Such an enormous process just to clarify why I am posting.
You guys are not concerned about the economy?

My main reason for posting was to see what you were thinking and perhaps what kind of state things are in where you live.
Oh wait maybe it seems like fearmongering posting the dow index...?
The post taken from another forum was from a news source, did anyone even bother to read it?



[/list]
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[umbus]

Perhaps I should separate my interests where they reside and chunk down the art interest in here.

So you didn't wanna discuss Dexter anymore?
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[umbus]

btw feel free to delete the thread, I don't mind.
_________________
http://www.umbus.com

[Drunken Monkey]

umbus, ignore the snobbery...

Its been here for a long time and it will stay here. Every time a group of individuals with common interests gets together a sub group of "intellectuals" is formed that try to impose their bullshit fucking social norms on everyone else. How to talk how to walk... how to properly address their highly refined egos.

Post whatever the fuck you want. Fences are for monkeys.
_________________
"A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity" - Sigmund Freud

[Tzan]

Drunken Monkey said: "Fences are for monkeys"

Hmmm

[Drunken Monkey]

_________________
"A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity" - Sigmund Freud