[Jimmyjimjim]

Don't know if anyone has heard (or cares), but it seems four studios are now supporting HD-DVD in the upcoming format wars- Paramount, Warner, Universal, New Line. Seems Sony/Columbia(go figure) and Fox are supporting Sony's BlueRay DVD format.

By the middle of the year, you'll be able to purchase players for around $900.00 and discs for $24.99-34.99. When I bought my player I paid $650.00 for a unit that is the equivalent of some 29.99 P.O.S. you can buy today at WalMart. Supposedly studious will be clearing out inventories of DVDs at $1-$5 buy the end of 2005.

I was intrigued that the studios are adopting new formats so quickly this time around. I wonder of it has anything to do with the fact that pirating DVD has become so ridiculously easy. Not that I ever do this, but with DVD Decrypter and DVD Shrink you can make nearly perfect copies of movies. I wonder if piracy is at the root of the format change?

Is anyone going to buy one of the new formats this year, or is everyone going to hold on to their current DVD players ? I think that until HDTVs are affordable it is ridiculous to change to another format. What good is it to have a High-Def player when you don't have a high-def TV.

[gLitterbug]

I do think that piracy is given as the main reason of the change, and that studios think that will skyrocket sales. But I really doubt both of it a bit as it also is a nice way of making money. Not that I blame them, after all the research has to be paid and that is most of the time by the enthusiast, who want to have the newest stuff asap to be the coolest kid on the block and satisfy their inner geek.

I for one could not and would not afford it right after release, but just wait for a bit and meanwhile get me the cheap dvd�s they�ll throw out, which I very much doubt will happen anytime soon either. It will be more likely that first the price of the new stuff is ridiculously high until they think a price drop would boost sales and they get the most out of it by doing it at that point of time instead of sooner when they would maybe loose out on money from the geeks that don�t mind paying a 10x as high price.

[Giant Hamster]

I won't buy the new format, I didn't buy the old format.

[Impaler]

They tried this with vinyl records. The little hole in the center of the record for the spindle would come in different sizes, for different companies. Albums released on the RCA record label would only work on RCA record players, for instance. There was massive consumer dissatisfaction with the idea and it was eventually dropped in favor of a universal format.

I'm thinking this is going to be another Laserdisc, a specialty item that caters only to hardcore enthusiasts with a lot of money. There simply aren't enough people with HD-TV to justify another paradigm shift, yet.

Plus, it's only a matter of time before DVD itself becomes obsolete. I'm sure that in five or ten years, we'll download movies directly onto a flash card, or even just over the internet. Comcast is already trying this with their stupid digital cable movie service.
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QED, sort of.

[Giant Hamster]

Zachpaler: If I remember right the pressure is on to change over to HD TV as fast as possible. They're also planning a Microsoft style switch in a few years where they simply stop supporting or distributing the old format. Anyone still using an older format TV will have nothing to watch as it will all be HD-TV.

From what I remember a few years ago they projected this all happening as early as 2008 or sooner. (2006)

[watmough]

yeah....congress passed a law stating that all the networks had to switch over within a pretty limited time-frame....

[Spooky]

I can only surmise that since many people are just starting to get into and understand DVD or a lot of consumers have almost finished trading their VHS collections for DVD, that the new format war will not do as well as the studios are hoping. DVD was supposed to be a standard, as was the DVD Recording methods (DVD-R being more compatible and found in most Macs, but DVD+ being a proprietary format found in many Windows PCs). Thankfully most recorders and players understand both now. But consumers were and still are confused. These studios do nothing but a disservice to themselves by trying to get the early upperhand with proprietary formats. If they followed a standard to begin with, everybody would benefit.

Most people think DVD is THE ultimate in digital quality. Many are unaware of different MPEG encoding levels, HDTV, or Uncompressed formats (somewhat) such as Betacam SP, DigiBeta, etc. It will be an extremely tough sell to most consumers. And with the quality of DVDs like The Fifth Element and both versions of all three Lord Of The Rings films, Star Wars and Indiana Jones, even pros like myself, don't mind a slight bit of compression if it's done close enough to perfect, and in the case of LOTR, includes an incredible cornucopia of extras. If these DVDs look fine on their CRT or LCD Projection TV, why buy new versions all over again?

There will have to be very big incentives to get people to adopt Blu-Ray or HD DVD. Sony, using Blu-Ray for their PS2 may have the upperhand with younger and older gamers who are tech savvy, so that format might get a slight jump. Sony is known for their proprietary formats, and if they would've adopted MP3 earlier instead of ATRAC, they wouldn't have lost so much ground to the iPod. I love both Sony and Apple, but I know the MiniDiscs failure was the ATRAC only recording. The PSX and PS2 both helped DVD along in the gaming world.

One of the major downsides to any DVD or CD is that they still get scratched or affected by fingerprints and dust. A technology needs to be consumer-damage and error proof as much as it can be. VHS tapes occasionally got eaten by machines, or erased by magnets, but for the most part they still work as they're intended. DVDs and CDs have to be handled with great care.

The only real leap I see people making in terms of formats is into 3D film and display / interaction technology. There are a lot of patent-pending technologies that feature 3D displays or pseudo-3D imagery, but when the technology exists to PUT YOU INTO Middle-Earth, ON Jurassic Park, or IN The Matrix, there will be a much larger segment willing to abandon the current format.
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